This Stock Market Trend Has Accurately Predicted Every Election Since 1984

President Trump is the Democrats’ scapegoat when it comes to, well…everything that is bad in the world.

Honestly, you’d think that evil and wickedness didn’t even exist before Donald Trump became President.

The coronavirus, the riots (when they acknowledge them), racist, you name it it’s all President Trump’s fault according to the left.

On the other hand, former Vice President Joe Biden does not appear to offer much of a compelling alternative. The question which is on much of the country’s mind is “who will win?”

An unlikely source has an 87% track record predicting the winner since President Hoover: the stock market. More precisely, the S&P 500 has predicted the outcome correctly except for three times.

What does the stock market have to do with elections? Well, when the stock market is up over the 3 months leading up to the election, the incumbent wins while if the market is down, the challenger wins.

Back in June, Fox Business quoted LPL Financial’s senior market strategist Ryan Detrick as saying,

“Think about it: No one expected Hillary Clinton to lose back in 2016—no one except the stock market, that is. The Dow had a 9-day losing streak directly ahead of the election, while copper—more of a President Trump infrastructure play—was up a record 14 days in a row, setting the stage for the change in party leadership in the White House.”

What about the three elections in which the market failed to successfully predict the outcome? As Business Insider reports,

“The three elections where the stock market incorrectly predicted the winner of the presidential election were:

  1. In 1956, when the incumbent, Dwight D. Eisenhower, was reelected despite the S&P 500 falling 3.2% in the three months before the election.
  2. In 1968, when the incumbent lost to Richard Nixon despite the S&P 500 rising 6% in the three months before the election.
  3. In 1980, when the incumbent lost to Ronald Reagan despite the S&P 500 rising 6.9% in the three months before the election.”

So since 1984 and most elections prior to that with few exceptions, this has been an accurate model to determine who will be president.

Sources:
Fox NewsBusiness Insider

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