Republicans are about to flip the Senate, according to Fox News Power Rankings this week.
Vice President Kamala Harris sees a small post-debate bump. Three new toss-up races have emerged in the House. The GOP is losing ground on the governor map.
Two weeks after their first debate, Harris is up by a point, and Trump is down the same in high-quality polls.
These numbers are similar to what we saw after the first debate between Biden and Trump four years ago. That could spell trouble for Republicans.
In 2020, Trump didn’t close the polling gap from the first debate until he performed better in the second one. Harris and Trump haven’t agreed on a rematch yet.
Harris’ bump comes mostly from independents. Last month, they backed Trump by 8 points, but now they prefer Harris by 12. This group could give her an edge on election night.
The same poll shows Trump down by 2 points among all voters. He sits at 48%, while Harris is at 50%. If this holds, Trump could still have an electoral college edge.
But if Trump’s support slips more, that could change the entire equation.
Republicans had an early lead in the Senate, largely thanks to their star candidate in Montana. Now, they’re forecasted to secure at least 51 seats on election night.
Montana is moving out of the toss-up category this week. Two races remain in play.