Political analyst Chuck Todd had a warning for former Vice President Kamala Harris. He’s not so sure running for California governor in 2026 is the right move.
According to Politico, Harris told someone at a pre-Oscars party she’ll decide by the end of summer. Two people familiar with the conversation confirmed it.
When asked by Conan Nolan if Harris would run—and should run—Todd didn’t hold back. “Boy, I would be shocked if she does,” Todd said. “If she wants to run for president in ‘28, you can’t run for governor of California in ‘26.”
He made it clear—running for governor might mean giving up on the White House. “So I do think if she runs for governor, she’s made the decision she’s not running.”
Todd also pointed to the risk of voter fatigue after years of one-party rule. “Here’d be my warning to any conventional Democrat running for governor of California in ‘26: Go look at the track record of any political party trying to win a governorship for basically for 20 straight years,” he said.
“It doesn’t happen very often, right?” he added. “And so this is 16 straight years of Democratic governance in California. It’s the longest, I think, going back nearly a hundred years.”
He said Harris’ long political resume might not help her. “Governor is the one place where voters won’t always vote their jersey color,” Todd explained. “And I think voters are going to be looking for somebody from the outside.”
He continued, “And I think that Harris — somebody who’s the former vice president, former U.S. senator, former district attorney in San Francisco — how does she sell change? She’s got to somehow run against Gavin Newsom’s governorship.”
“So I just don’t see the path for her,” he added. “I could see an outsider Democrat being able to message this. I think it’s a tough place for her to be.”
Todd offered his advice. “If I were advising her, I’d tell her: go throw yourself into the rebuild of LA and get involved with the LA Olympic Committee. Be above politics for a couple of years and come back maybe in 2030 or 2032.”
Harris lost all seven swing-states and the popular vote to Donald Trump in November. Back in the 2020 presidential race, she got just 844 votes in the Democratic primary and earned zero delegates.
Political analyst Mark Halperin weighed in too. He thinks Harris has a steep climb, no matter what she decides.
“I think her chance[s] of being governor of California are greater than being the Democratic nominee,” Halperin said. “But I don’t think they’re as great as people say, because again, her challenge is her weakness.”
“She does not like to make difficult choices under pressure, and that is the job description for running for governor of California, being governor of California, running for president, being president.”
“So I think she might try, but I think she’d be surprised at how tough it is,” Halperin said. “And finally, I’ll say I’m not sure she wants to be governor of California.”
“It’s not a great job right now, and so why she’d run and risk losing, and then if she did win, get the job — I’m not really sure.”