Comedian Bill Maher admitted he got it wrong on Trump’s economy. On Monday’s episode of his “Club Random” podcast, Maher said he was among those who predicted President Donald Trump’s tariffs would tank the U.S. economy by July — but it didn’t happen.
“I remember I, along with probably most people, were saying at the beginning, ‘Oh, you know, by the 4th of July’… the economy was going to be tanked by then,” Maher said. “That didn’t happen. Now, it could happen tomorrow. I’m just saying that’s reality.”
Maher confessed he expected economic fallout from Trump’s aggressive tariff policy — a view echoed by many economists. But instead, key indicators show surprising strength: the stock market hit record highs, manufacturing is up, and jobless claims are down.
“I don’t see a country in a depression at all,” Maher added. “I see people out there just living their lives. I would have thought… that these tariffs were going to fucking sink this economy by this time — and they didn’t.”
The Federal Reserve reported that U.S. manufacturing output rose 0.1% in June, following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in May. And jobless claims dropped by 4,000 the week ending July 19 — marking six straight weeks of decline.
Retail sales also bounced back, climbing 0.6% in June, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s advance estimates released July 17.
In addition to economic resilience, Trump has inked major new trade deals this term — with the European Union, Japan, and the Philippines — bolstering confidence among business leaders and investors alike.
While critics of the tariff strategy remain, Maher’s surprising pivot is a reflection of what more Americans are noticing: the economy isn’t collapsing — it’s holding steady and, in some areas, even thriving.