CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten said Thursday that Vice President JD Vance is currently well-positioned to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, citing early polling data and historical trends.
Speaking on CNN News Central, Enten noted that former President Donald Trump recently stated during a White House ceremony that Vance is “probably favored” to carry the Make America Great Again (MAGA) mantle forward.
“This is early polling, but JD Vance leads the GOP nomination field with 40%,” Enten explained. “There’s no one even close—Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is at 8%, and Donald Trump Jr. follows with 7%.”
Although he cautioned that the 2028 race is still years away, Enten emphasized that early polling leaders often carry significant momentum.
“Keep in mind that early favorites have gone on to win the nomination 63% of the time since 1980,” he said. “When you’re dealing with large fields of five to twenty candidates and one person holds a clear lead, that’s a strong signal. Right now, it looks pretty darn good for the man from Ohio.”
Host Kate Bolduan asked Enten about the track record of sitting vice presidents seeking their party’s nomination.
“The last five sitting vice presidents who ran for their party’s nomination all won,” Enten said. “Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Al Gore in 2000, and now Kamala Harris in 2024. That’s five out of five.”
Enten added that if Vance chooses to run, both polling and historical precedent suggest he would be a strong contender. “If JD Vance enters the race as a sitting vice president, history suggests he has a very real shot of securing the nomination.”
Bolduan then asked about the influence of Trump’s endorsement in a future Vance campaign. Enten highlighted the former president’s strong track record in GOP primary endorsements.
“In 2020, Trump’s endorsed candidates won 98% of the time. In 2022, 95%. In 2024, 96%,” Enten said. “If Trump throws his support behind Vance, this 2028 nomination fight could be over before it begins.”
During Tuesday’s event, Trump also floated the possibility of Florida Senator Marco Rubio joining a future Vance ticket.
“I think Marco is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form,” Trump said.
Rubio echoed similar sentiments during a recent interview with Lara Trump, saying, “JD Vance would be a great nominee” if he decides to run for president.