Former Obama aide Jon Favreau voiced deep concern Friday over new Catalist data showing why Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump in the 2024 election — calling the results “unsurprising” but “depressing.”
Speaking on Pod Save America, Favreau said the report confirmed fears that Harris had lost major ground with key parts of the Democratic base. “Kamala Harris lost critical ground with young voters and people of color, especially men of color — especially young men of color,” he said. The only demographic where she saw slight gains? Married white women — and even that was just by one point.
Favreau pointed out that while Harris slightly outperformed Biden with consistent “super voters,” she fell behind badly among “irregular” voters — those who voted in just a few of the last four elections. He referenced the stinging summary from The Cook Political Report: “The Obama Coalition Turned Into the Trump Coalition.” “Ouch,” Favreau added.
The Catalist analysis showed that infrequent and new voters — often younger and more diverse — didn’t show up for Harris in the way they had for Obama or even Biden. Trump capitalized, pulling together a new coalition that included surprising shifts among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups.
Political analyst Chris Cillizza highlighted just how dramatic the shift was. “Latino men moved four times more toward Donald Trump in 2024 than white men without a college degree,” he said. “That is striking.”
Young voters, especially people of color, were a major part of the movement. Latino voters aged 18 to 29 shifted 12 points toward Republicans. Asian-American and Pacific Islander youth moved nine points right. Even urban youth — a reliably liberal group — trended 9% more Republican than in 2020.
Trump’s 2024 numbers with women also ticked upward. He improved by 1% overall, 7% with Hispanic women, and 4% with Asian-American and Pacific Islander women. His numbers remained unchanged with Black and white women.
The data paints a clear picture: Harris failed to energize the core of the Obama-era coalition — and Trump took full advantage.