CNN polling expert Harry Enten believes a sweep of the main battleground states is “more likely than not.” Polls show all seven big swing states nearly even between Vice President Harris and former President Trump.
In a recent segment, Enten shared that his electoral model indicates a 60 percent chance the election winner will get at least 300 electoral votes. “So for all the talk that we’ve had about this election being historically close, which it is, chances are the winner will still actually score a relative blowout in the Electoral College,” he said.
The polling data shows a tight race. No candidate leads in the seven swing states by more than 2 points. If Harris and Trump split those states, the winner would likely just exceed the 270 electoral votes needed to win. However, winning most or all of the states would push them above 300 votes, creating a more comfortable margin.
Enten pointed out that the average polling error in key swing states since 1972 is 3.4 percentage points. If polls are off by that much this year, one candidate could sweep all seven states.
Past elections suggest that one candidate often exceeds expectations in multiple states. In 2012, for example, 92 percent of states’ polling averages underestimated Obama. In 2016, 83 percent underestimated Trump, and in 2020, it was 100 percent.
“So this time around, don’t be surprised if the swing state polls, when they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate all of them in the states,” Enten cautioned. “That would lead to a relative Electoral College blowout, with one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes.”
While presidential elections have been close in recent years, the race could still be tight even if one candidate wins most swing states. In 2020, Biden won six of the seven battlegrounds, but some victories were by only a few tens of thousands of votes.
A true landslide has not occurred since 1988. That year, George H.W. Bush secured over 400 electoral votes in his victory.