Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris in the betting market hit a record high, jumping 16 points on Tuesday morning. Polymarket now gives Trump a 57.9 percent chance of winning, with Harris at 41.9 percent.
Just two weeks ago, they were neck and neck, both around 49 percent. Trump took a slight lead last week, and Harris, who once led by 6 percent in August, has now fallen behind.
The shift could be tied to Harris’ frantic media push, polls favoring Trump, concerns about fracking in Pennsylvania, and dissatisfaction with the country’s direction. Only 28 percent of voters believe America is on the right path.
Historically, no incumbent party has won with such low satisfaction numbers, which usually need to be above 39 percent.
Skeptics question the betting market’s reliability. The New York Times pointed out that prediction markets often differ from traditional polls, highlighting the uncertainty.
It’s true. While most polls show Trump and Harris in a close race, especially in key states, betting markets were more accurate in 2016 and 2020 than the polls.
In fact, polls underestimated Trump by nine points in 2016 and five points in 2020.