Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data reporter, said Tuesday that if the 2024 presidential election polls miss like they did in 2020, Trump “wins in a blowout.”
He analyzed current swing state polling between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The numbers show a race that’s “too close to call.” But Enten warned that recent polls have been inaccurate. If they miss again, Trump could win by a landslide.
“But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020,” Enten told CNN anchor John Berman.
He explained that Trump would take 312 electoral votes in that scenario, winning states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Enten emphasized how close the current numbers are. His data shows Harris leading in some key states, while Trump is ahead in others.
Yet, he reminded viewers that these differences are within the margin of error. This makes it impossible to declare a clear leader.
Enten highlighted the historical error rate in polling, adding that a shift of just a few points could swing the election in either direction.
“The bottom line is, it’s way too close to call,” he said, pointing out how the numbers remain uncertain.
He also showed what would happen if polls are 100% accurate. In that case, Harris would win with 276 electoral votes to Trump’s 262.
Enten noted that if polling errors are like 2020, Trump could secure 312 electoral votes, flipping key states in his favor.
Finally, he considered the possibility of a 2022-like polling miss. In that case, Harris could win big with 319 electoral votes.